WS #14135

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz narrative remains in an ESCALATING phase, with multiple new data points reinforcing the bullish oil thesis. Iran's deputy foreign minister reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iranian control until the US accepts defeat, directly countering Trump's claim that he will declare it US territory. Tanker traffic through the strait has collapsed to 17% of pre-war levels, with only 151 ships transiting in the past week, and a third ADNOC vessel was attacked in the last week. Brent crude rose ~6% this week, and US gasoline prices are up 29% YoY, with Trump urging Americans to pay 'a little bit more' for gas. The Iran-Oman shipping route deal is progressing but the US is not party to it, and Iran's foreign minister says no decision has been made to resume talks with Washington. This is corroborated across multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, AP, GDELT, OilPrice). The oil supply shock continues to benefit energy names (XOM, CVX) while pressuring airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping (MATX). Separately, a Hezbollah drone strike and Israeli retaliatory airstrikes in Lebanon killed 11 people, the deadliest since the June truce, adding to regional risk premium. On the tech side, Apple is partnering with Alibaba to build a China-specific AI model, a strategic shift to recover market share, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick warned against Apple buying Chinese memory chips, creating potential supply chain friction. Nvidia's disclosed stakes in SpaceX ($21B) and Intel ($30B) are now public, with the SpaceX stake already down to ~$17.2B due to price declines, but this is a carry-forward from prior awareness. Berkshire's Q2 13F shows a net buyer shift with a massive Alphabet stake ($37.8B), confirming the earlier signal. The macro backdrop includes US retail sales falling 0.6% in July, the biggest drop since May 2025, and jobless claims rising, pointing to a slowing economy, which could temper the oil-driven inflation narrative.