WS #14243

The US-Iran ceasefire MOU expired at midnight Sunday with no extension, and the situation is escalating. Iran's IRGC political deputy Yadollah Javani stated the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US honors the Islamabad MoU, while Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asserted Iran's 'sovereign rights' over the strait and rejected the 60-day deadline as non-binding. An Iranian general threatened to 'break Trump's legs' over his annexation remarks. Shipping through Hormuz has nearly halted—only five commodity vessels crossed Saturday and none Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend (Kpler data). The IEA's August Oil Market Report projects global oil demand will contract by 1.6 mb/d in 2026 (510k bbl more than prior), with 8.3 mb/d of Gulf production still shut in and global observed inventories down 410 mb since the war began. WTI is up 0.7% to $82.10, Brent around $88.45, and US national average gasoline has climbed back above $4/gallon. This is a high-significance escalation with direct energy and transport implications.