WS #14252

The dominant theme remains Middle East escalation, now entering a critical phase as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire expires with no extension. President Trump's threat to bomb Oman if it interferes with Hormuz negotiations, confirmed by multiple sources (CNBC, The Independent, Epoch Times, and others), escalates the risk premium on oil. However, a counter-signal emerges: Bloomberg reports that covert oil flows through Hormuz continue at full tilt, with Saudi Arabia offering oil from near Oman, which is keeping a lid on prices. This is corroborated by oilprice.com data showing WTI at $82.78 (+0.46%) and Brent at $89.11 (+0.67%), with Murban crude surging 6.74% to $95.45, indicating regional price dispersion. Hormuz traffic remains collapsed at 5 ships over the weekend, but the covert shuttle trade is mitigating the supply shock. Canada's inflation accelerated to 3.0% (above 2.9% consensus) driven by a 25.7% gasoline price surge, with core measures also firming, which could influence BoC policy and indirectly support the dollar. The AI infrastructure theme continues with Nvidia cutting its OpenAI Ohio data center guarantee from ~$250B to under $120B (WSJ, corroborated by multiple sources), a high-significance development that pressures NVDA and AI capex sentiment, while Anthropic's strong Q2 revenue ($11.5B, 14x YoY) supports the AI rally. Stripe's acquisition of OpenRouter for >$7B (Bloomberg) is a new signal for AI infrastructure consolidation. The ECB's warning of a potential AI market correction adds a bearish counter-narrative to the tech rally. Meta faces a $1.4 trillion theoretical damages lawsuit from 29 states over child addiction, a high-significance legal overhang. The Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's E. Jean Carroll appeal is political noise with no direct market impact. Overall, the market is in a 'balance of terror' between AI-driven tech gains and geopolitical oil risks, with the dollar weakening and gold ticking up.