WS #14293

The dominant market-moving theme is the escalation of US-Iran tensions following the expiry of the 60-day ceasefire, with Iran ruling out extending talks and shifting to an offensive posture. This has driven oil prices sharply higher (Brent +2.5% to $90.87, WTI +2.5% to $84.50), with Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsing to just 13 ships over the weekend. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.321%, the highest since 2007, reflecting inflation and deficit concerns. Wall Street closed lower (S&P 500 -0.52%, Dow -0.51%) with airlines and software stocks weak, while energy and defense names outperformed. The US Navy awarded RTX a $23 billion Tomahawk missile contract, and Russia is shipping explosives to Iran, further escalating the conflict. Trump's threat to bomb Oman adds a new geopolitical flashpoint. Counter-signals are limited: China added 200,000 bpd to crude reserves, and JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000, but these do not offset the immediate risk-off tone.