WS #14301

The US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING sharply. The 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired Monday without a deal, and Iran has declared a 'fully offensive' military posture, while Washington rules out extending the ceasefire. President Trump has threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes, and separately floated declaring the Strait of Hormuz US territory. This has driven Brent crude above $91/bbl (WTI above $85), the highest since early August, and pushed the US 30-year Treasury yield to 5.326%, a 19-year high, with the 10-year JGB yield at a 30-year high near 2.94%. A commercial vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member, and Chinese shipping giants COSCO and CMES have stopped sending oil tankers through the strait, corroborating severe disruption. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982, after emergency releases. This macro backdrop is pressuring equities globally (Nikkei -2.54%, S&P futures -0.4%) and boosting energy and defense names. Separately, Nvidia's $105B backing for OpenAI's Ohio data center is confirmed, with Nvidia investing $1.5B in SB Energy, and the company is partnering with major asset managers to mobilize over $500B for AI infrastructure, reinforcing the AI capex supercycle. Canada faces a 50% US tariff deadline Wednesday, adding trade uncertainty. Japan's Q2 GDP grew 1.1% annualized, below expectations, and the BOJ is expected to hike in September, fueling JGB yield surge.