WS #16119

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, marked by Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil terminals. This has triggered a sharp reversal in oil markets, with WTI extending gains and Brent recovering, signaling renewed supply risk premiums. Concurrently, the US-Iran ceasefire narrative is being tested by these kinetic actions, though Polymarket data suggests the market still prices in a high probability of a ceasefire holding through year-end. In equity markets, a broad tech selloff is finding a floor as AI and semiconductor stocks rebound, supported by a Goldman Sachs upgrade for CoreWeave and strong institutional demand for Apple and QQQ via dark pools. However, the broader tech narrative faces headwinds from record fund outflows and regulatory scrutiny, notably Meta facing a 24-hour ultimatum from Brazil's electoral court. Meanwhile, the Jio Platforms IPO in India demonstrates massive institutional appetite, with anchor demand exceeding 30x, highlighting continued capital formation in digital infrastructure despite macro volatility.